The modeling team would like to thank the Cornell community for the sincerity and energy put into providing comments on our work. The webpage provides links to our reports and updates.
Modeling Update for Gateway Testing (August 5)
We provide this updated modeling analysis of gateway testing prompted by three recent events: COVID-19 prevalence has risen in parts of the U.S. since we wrote our report in June; a potential lack of test access for some Cornell students in their home location; and the recently instituted requirement that people coming to NY State from some high-prevalence are as must self-quarantine upon arrival regardless of test results.
Addendum (July 17)
This provides an in-depth analysis of some of the questions posed in response to the June 15 Report. In particular, the addendum studies (a) alternative methodologies for estimating contacts / day and transmission rate, (b) the effectiveness of increased test frequency in mitigating the effect of higher-than-modeled contacts / day, (c) the effect of non-compliance with testing, and (d) the effect of offering testing to virtual instruction students.
Original Report (June 15)
Comments on the June 15 report (and responses) are given below. Comments are indexed for easy referral.
Issue (Last Updated July 3)
|Contacts-Per-Day||F28, F19, F16, F14, F10, F8, F7, F6, F1|
|Higher-than-anticipated transmission rate||F32, , F19, F16, F14, F10, F9, F8, F7, F6, F1|
|Effectiveness of Testing||F9|
|Testing in the virtual instruction setting + testing compliance in the residential setting||F29, F27, F26, F25#1, F17, F11|
|Off-campus students are tested in the residential scenario||F31, F27A|
|Number of Students Returning in the Virtual Instruction Scenario|
|Modeling fatalities||F29, F13, F12|
|Racial and Ethnic Disparities||F25#2, F24, F23|
|Pressure from university leadership||F18|
|Effect of raising transmission rate equally in virtual and residential instruction settings||F21|
|Capacity in local hospitals||F22|
|Framing of uncertainty||F30, F9, F5, F2|
|Crediting of experts in disease modeling||F9, F1|
|Impact on Tompkins County||F20|
|Impact of students arriving early because we would start Sep 2||F15|
|Number of cases missed in gateway testing||F32|
Note On Data
Data is central to the scientific approach that is being taken. Two surveys taken early in the summer had a big impact on the university’s approach to F20.The Student survey gets at residential vs online instruction and the likelihood of coming to campus/Ithaca for the fall semester. The Faculty survey that gets at in-person vs online instruction and risk assessment of being on campus.